This is a brief summary of an intensive analysis in 2010 that suggested the next economic up cycle would arrive about 2015. Our forecast proved remarkably accurate, and we have been congratulated by many clients on this success.
The TechCast Team
TechCast’s analysis of the US economy’s 35-year growth cycles suggests that the next boom is likely to begin about 2015. It may be punctuated by sharp drops, but they will not last long.
We are likely to see the booms and busts normal in any market system, but these will be minor blips in a 35-year upcycle that benefits from a vast range of breakthroughs as the technology revolution picks up speed. Our forecasts collectively suggest a potential of about US$50-60 trillion growth in the global economy over the next decade due to this wave of emerging technologies, almost doubling the present world GDP.
But mounting national debt, trade wars, a stock-market bubble, political isolation of the US, and other excesses could trigger severe corrections. In these lofty economic realms, where price-earnings ratios often reach 40–50, anything could ignite the next crash—war with North Korea or Iran and a global environmental disaster caused by severe climate change.