Cyber War

Executive Overview

 

The threat of severe, debilitating cyberattacks is growing exponentially as the digital world envelops all facets of modern life.

China, Russia, and North Korea pose the biggest risks, with myriad attacks on Western governments and companies daily. The problem is expected to grow more menacing as  terrorists become involved. NATO, the US, EU, South Korea, and Israel are bearing the brunt of the damage, but it could spread easily to encompass entire global systems. Iran has already been the target of at least two cyberattacks on its nuclear program to steal data and sabotage operations, and North Korea disrupted a Sony film that was critical of its leader. 

Protective defenses are being developed, and authorities think the possibility of a “Cyber Armageddon” is less likely than a continuing wave of small assaults that wear away at infrastructure and morale.

 
Most  Likely Forecast

As shown below, myriad cyber assaults on corporations and governments occur daily. Most are not very damaging, but the global costs run in the US$ trillions. 

  •  Security Cost US$86B and rising  According to Gartner, global spending for information security products and services will reach US$80 billion in 2017 and US$93 billion in 2018. [i]
  •  Cybercrime Will Cost US$8T  Cybercrime is expected to cost global businesses over US$8 trillion over the five years to 2022. [ii]
  •  Cost per Attack Rising  The average cybercrime to US companies costs an average of US$21 million, with the global average being US$11.7 Billion. The costs continue to rise at a rate of over 20 percent year on year. [iii]

 

TechCast experts estimate a roughly 78-percent probability that a series of attacks launches a cyber war that severely damages the economy, defense, or other crucial sectors of major nations over the next few decades. Experts’ confidence is high (70%) and they think consequences of a major cyberattack could be devastating..

 

Constant Minor Assaults at Great Cost

The explosive growth of world-wide IT capabilities and antagonism from powerful nations is causing an ever-expanding growth in the scale, frequency, sophistication, and damage done by cyberattacks. A Ponemon Institute survey of 639 IT professionals in the US found that 35 percent had been the target of a nation-state cyberattack. 

  •  US Government Hacked  Thousands of cyber breaches occur at all levels of the US government annually, including stealing top-secret tools and material from the NSA and breaching the Securities and Exchange Commission. [iv] Research from Security Scorecard give government systems one of the lowest security ratings across all industries. [v] The US Government Accountability Office has also identified “consistent shortcomings” in the federal government’s approach to cybersecurity. [vi]
  •  Companies Not Ready  According to an IBM study, 68 percent of companies do not believe their organizations can remain resilient in the wake of a cyberattack, and 66 percent aren’t confident in their ability to recover from an attack. [vii]
  •  Infrastructure Can Be Brought Down  Cyberattacks have been shown to be able to bring down critical infrastructure, such as the malware that caused widespread electricity blackouts in Ukraine in 2015 and 2016. Lloyd’s estimates that a successful cyberattack on the Northeast US electricity grid could result in economic damage of more than a US$1 trillion. Transportation devices from connected vehicles to airplanes have been shown to be vulnerable to hacking, even remotely. [viii]
 
CyberWarfare Nations

At least 15 countries have been shown to launch cyberattacks; the most active countries are Russia, United States, North Korea and China. 

 Russia  Russian hackers have been very active on a number of fronts, ranging from penetrating Democratic National Committee servers  to hacking into the World AntiDoping Agency medical records. 

 China  The People’s Republic has been responsible for a number of attacks, such as stealing sensitive information about the F-35 Lightning II fighter plane from US Defense Department computers. In 2017, the US National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center warned of an “emerging sophisticated campaign” from a group with suspected ties to the Chinese government, affecting a growing number of companies globally. [ix]

 North Korea  North Korean hackers have quickly gained global “respect” as they have become increasingly sophisticated since the Sony hack in 2014. North Korea was, for example, responsible for the widespread Wannacry malware in 2017. [x]

 Australia  While little is known of Australia’s ability to launch cyberattacks, the Signals Directorate has been publicly recruiting “offensive cyber specialists.”

 

Protection is Coming

Fortunately, some measures are underway to preclude cyberattacks:

 Funding for US Defenses on The Rise  The cybersecurity spending of US Government is rising rapidly, having risen from US$7.5 billion in 2007 to US$28 billion in 2016. President Trump’s first budget blueprint also proposes an additional US$1.5 billion for the Department of Homeland Security specifically to protect federal networks and critical infrastructure from cyberattacks. [xi]

 US−China Cyberspace Agreement  The United States and China agreed on the first arms control accord for cyberspace. The agreement says that each country will not be the first to use cyberweapons to cripple the other’s critical infrastructure during peacetime. There is, however, growing doubt whether the agreement will have any practical effect on China’s behavior. [xii]

 
Strategic Implications

A major cyberattack could target a developed country’s vital civilian or military infrastructure, terrorizing the populace and making it much more vulnerable to conventional attack. A successful attack on infrastructure such on the US power grid has the potential to cause as much as US$1 trillion of economic damage and significant loss of life. Hiscox Insurance estimates cybercrime is already costing the global economy over US$450 billion annually. [xiii]  

Contrary to the common fear that cyber-attacks would be devastating, James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence, told the Senate, “Rather than a ‘Cyber Armageddon’ scenario that debilitates the entire US infrastructure, we … foresee an ongoing series of low-to-moderate level cyberattacks from a variety of sources over time.”  

   

[i] Gartner, Aug 16, 2017

[ii] Juniper Research, May 30, 2017

[iii] Accenture, 2017

[iv] New York Times, Nov 12, 2017

[v] Security Scorecard, 2017

[vi] GAO, Feb 14, 2017

[vii] IBM, Nov 16, 2016

[viii] Aviation Today, Nov 8, 2017

[ix] Department of Homeland Security, Apr 27, 2017

[x] New York Times, Oct 15, 2017

[xi] Hill, Mar 16, 2017

[xii] Diplomat, Jan 19, 2017

[xiii] CNBC, Feb 7, 2017

Space Comercialization

The commercialization of space has come into focus as a fact of life recently. Just a few years ago, space commercialization was limited to satellite production, launch, and maintenance. Since 2010 when the US signed the National Space Policy, there has been increasing support of commercial space, and this was boosted in 2013 with the National Space Transportation Policy. To create a true space era, however, two major breakthroughs are needed  — big advances in space technology and lower costs.

TechCast covers the six forecasts below on space. These forecasts suggest we should see dramatic gains during the next decade as space tourism and commercialization take off. 

 In the computer industry, and particularly in microchips and miniaturization, Moore’s law has been dramatically lowering the production costs of advancements in “silicone” based technology. A similar trend is underway in space commercialization. A first step in this direction was taken when NASA opened the space race to visionary entrepreneurs. The “Silicon Era” dominated the past 70 years. In space, the same trend is happening with major investments in scores of companies like Space X, Virgin Galactic, Orbital Sciences, and Boeing.

For example, the Space Angels Network has funded 23 companies pioneered by entrepreneurs in space technology, from manufacturing satellites to manufacturing better engines for space launches. Mars-One, the controversial enterprise committed to sending people on a one way trip to Mars, is funding its mission through a combination of reality show and crowd-funding. Other companies are planning trips to the Moon, building private space stations, and mining asteroids.

I can’t help but draw parallels and wonder — can the new technological innovations co-evolve to bring space commercialization closer to reality?

————————————————–

Anamaria Berea, PhD, is on the faculty at the Smith School of Business, U. Maryland and a TechCast Expert. 

Weed Is Back

One of TechCast’s Social Trends is quickly becoming the status quo.

After centuries of euphoria and medical use, marijuana in early 20th-century America entered decades of “just say no” and mass imprisonment for its use. Today, legal pot finally seems to have returned.

As of 2019, 30 states in the US now accept some form of legal use. Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, Columbia, and the Netherlands have legalized or decriminalized possession of marijuana. The Czech Republic, Portugal, and Uruguay have extended legalization to “hard” drugs such as cocaine and heroin.

Much like the ending of alcohol prohibition in the 1930s, it nally became evident that laws against marijuana failed to discourage consumption, and the harm resulting from them was overwhelming. Criminalization of pot and other drugs created a global black market worth US$300 billion/year and cost about US$1 trillion in police activity over four decades. American prisons are home to 1.6 million people, half of whom have been convicted of either selling or using drugs. And, despite frequent suggestions that legalization would cause rampant drug abuse, only 6.5 percent of 12- to 17-year-olds now use marijuana, the lowest proportion since 1994. 

In a letter to the UN, more than 1,000 world leaders including 27 US Congressmen and six Senators said the global war on drugs has been a “disaster” and called for change.                                                                                 

They have been joined by the United Methodist, the World Health Organization, the New York Times; countless physicians, judges, and police o  cials; and the majority of citizens in modern nations.

TechCast’s Social Trends forecast roughly 30 strategic movements in politics, business, medicine, lifestyles, and almost anything else leaders and planners should be thinking of, and we have forecast the arrival of Legal Pot for some years. Our latest results suggest that a third of G20 nations are likely to legalize marijuana use shortly after 2020, creating a global market of about US$30 billion per year; this seems modest compared to the black market of US$300 billion.

This signals that more lenient drug policies could become the norm. Our experts believe the social impact is likely to be moderately positive, although this will require new policies in most institutions. Social hostesses now plan their dinner parties to accommodate vape pens with more than fruity avors or infuse a little Pineapple Express in the hors d’oeuvres.

The result should be a significant improvement in medical treatment of drug use, reduced crime, fewer prisoners, saved cost of police work, tax income for states, and greater tolerance of lifestyle differences. Who knows? Legal pot might do a lot to improve everybody’s mood, and maybe even ease today’s dismal world situation.

Success Stories

 

TechCast does extensive consulting to leverage our knowledge base and employ our experts to address strategic problems. Click on the titles below to see summaries of typical projects we have conducted.

 

IPOS Singapore  TechCast conducted training and created a customized website  — TechCast-Singapore.

 

US Director of National Intelligence  TechCast conducted a study to forecast technological and commercial capabilities in the field of Human Intelligence. 

 

MIMOS, Ministry of Science, Malaysia  MIMOS is a leading research center for emerging technologies, and central to Malaysia’s development plan. A TechCast team conducted a 3-day workshop to help anticipate breakthroughs and guide applications.
 
US Federal Drug Administration   The FDA engaged TechCast in planning a national forecasts and strategy program on medical technologies using participants from the NIH, NSF, and other agencies as well as health care corporations.   
 
US Environmental Protection Agency  The EPA asked us to forecast the use of energy-intensive tehcnologies for the National Energy Model. Results showed close agreement in among 2 groups of experts, highlighting the robustness of our rearch method. 
 
Other projects include the Asian Development Bank, Academy of Science Malaysia, King Saud University, Blue Cross-Blue  Shield, AMD, Corning, and other corporations. 
 

What Clients Say

What Clients Say About TechCast

People_in_Line

 

”We are so impressed with TechCast we are considering increasing the number of personnel that can access the site!” U.S. Department of Homeland Security
 
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Business Executive Robert Chernow
 
“Professor Halal and his associates have charted the emergence of 85 crucial technologies, complete with the dates when we will feel their impact.” Baltimore Sun
 
“We found your study on emerging technologies extremely interesting.” Hon. David Watson, Minister of Public Works, Australia

 

“TechCast is fascinating.” Captain R.B. Laning, US Navy

 

“I agree with your conclusion that the Technology Revolution will transform civilization.” Wink Sutton, New Zealand Forestry Service

 

“TechCast is fantastic.” Naoya Sugio Mainichi Shimbun, Tokyo

 

“We have followed with interest your emerging technologies forecast and are incorporating the findings into our strategic planning.” Dr. Aviva Brecher, U.S. DOT

 

“TechCast is comprehensive and organized in a very useful fashion.” Betsy Irwin, US Federal Reserve

 

“TechCast left me very deeply impressed.” Lee Hong Kee, Samsung Corp.

 

“The site design is outstanding, and the interactive features draw you in, whether you have time or not. A great project.” Michael Michaelis, Michaelis & Associates, Inc.

 

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Plus many more …
 
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Superbugs

The Scourge of Drug Resistance

If antibiotics stop working, medicine will return to the 19th century when people routinely died of a minor cut, burn, or medical procedure. That may be coming as bacterial infections increasingly resist antibiotics and “superbugs” are evolving that can survive all antibiotic treatments. One study noted at the right estimates that by 2050 some 10 million people could die each year and cost the global economy US$60−US$100 trillion. [i]

The reasons include over-prescribing of antibiotics; patients’ failure to take their full prescription, leaving the strongest bugs to breed; and especially the use of low-dose antibiotics to stimulate growth in farm animals. There are no known cures for drug-resistant infections, and few new antibiotics are coming down the pipeline. Other treatments are in the works, but it could be years before they become available.

In the meantime, hospitals lose patients to uncontrollable infections, and periodic outbreaks of drug-resistant disease are becoming a major public health concern. UK chief medical officer Dame Sally Davies calls drug-resistant bacteria a serious global threat. [ii]  

The World Health Organization emphasized, “A post-antibiotic era in which common infections and minor injuries can kill [is] a very real possibility. Without urgent action, we are heading for a post-antibiotic era, in which common infections and minor injuries can once again kill.” [iii] 

 

Trends Driving Resistance

Antibiotic resistance is caused by a number of unsafe health practices and conditions that have encourage this problem. In some countries, antibiotics are available over the counter without a prescription. Farm animals are fed antibiotics to promote growth. Animals in close quarters are an ideal breeding ground. Drug-resistant bugs have been found in pigs, chicken, rabbits, birds, and even pets.  Superbugs were once confined to hospitals and nursing homes, but the use widespread air travel have created outbreaks in healthy people. Hotel rooms often test positive for drug-resistant bacteria. Superbugs are found in sewage plants where effluent is treated for use in irrigation and as fertilizer.  They survive purification, so even higher levels are found in dewatered sludge used as fertilizer. 

Some illnesses are more prone to drug resistance. Overall, 23,000 people die each year of antibiotic resistance in the US alone. The US CDC already lists multiple drug-resistant diseases as one of the biggest threats to medicine. The World Health Organization estimates that multi-drug resistant tuberculosis accounts for more than 650,000 deaths annually. [iv]

Infections caused by an antibiotic-resistant strain of E. coli have undergone a dramatic increase since 2008. Scientists recently learned that the deadliest infections, which kill 20 to 40 percent of patients, are caused by the same fast-growing strain of bacteria around the world. Parasites that cause Malaria long ago learned to survive chloroquine and they are becoming resistant to artemisinin, the current drug of choice, and there are few replacements in the pipeline. [v]

 
New Antibacterials  Being Developed

Fortunately, preventive measures are being implemented in various ways. Advances are being made in developing alternatives to antibiotics, but the pace is slow. Only 30 or so drugs are in trials, compared to hundreds under development for cancer. Here are programs underway:

  • Making Drugs More Potent  Preliminary results show that modifying existing antibiotics, such as vancomycin, can make them up to 25,000 times more potent. [vi]
  • Immune Booster  Researchers have found a drug that mimics a harmless virus and helps the body fight off antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
  • Mass UV exposure  One plan to diminish infection is to massively deploy UV-C lights in operating theatres, food preparation areas, schools and other locations of high risk. UV-C can kill viruses and bacteria but cannot penetrate the skin and is thus less harmful to humans than other forms of UV light. The practical challenges are enormous at a scale to be effective, and  prolonged exposure has been shown to damage the eyes. [vii]
  • Quantum Dots  Scientists have tailored particles 1/20,000th the size of a human hair to kill drug-resistant infections without harm to the patient. The technique is suited to treatment of infected cuts and of systemic infections, which can be especially hard to cure. [viii]
  • Phage Therapy  Doctors experimented with phage therapy, which uses viruses that naturally destroy bacteria to eliminate an infection. One bacteriophage specifically targets Clostridium difficile, which kills some 14,000 hospital patients in the US each year. Possible improvements include using only selected parts of the phage for therapy and genetically engineering phages to target specific infections.
  • New Drug Discoveries  Advances are leading to a new generation of drugs that tackle infections resistant to antibiotics.  An Australian team’s discovery of the structure of the “masking protein” responsible for the resistance is hailed as a “breakthrough.” [ix] 
  • World Health Organization  WHO has helped all members of the UN to form plans to combat anti-biotic resistance. They recently announced a list of all pathogens posing the greatest threat. [x] 
  • US Government  The US Food and Drug Administration asked drug companies to stop using antibiotics on farm animals, banned triclosan from consumer antiseptic washes, and they have a task force for new drug development. The US Centers for Disease Control has an Antimicrobial Resistance program and response teams. [xi]  
  • Big Pharma  85 pharmaceutical companies have pledged to work together to combat drug resistance. A major approach is to develop new business models that encourage innovation, like awarding big prizes for new antibiotics. 

 

Most Likely Forecast

One-third of the global population carries drug-resistant germs on their skin or in their nostrils. Outbreaks of Klebsiella, Salmonella, Shigella, and E. coli have risen four-fold over 10 years, and resistance is spreading from animals to humans in China. [xii]

In the US alone, 2 million people contract serious drug-resistant infections each year; 23,000 die. Another 25,000 a year die in Europe. Various studies estimate antimicrobial resistance to cost the global economy between $2 trillion and $100 trillion by 2050. 

A WHO analysis of 114 countries found “very high” rates of resistant infections across all regions, including “alarming” rates in many parts of the world.

A new WHO initiative Global Antimicrobial Surveillance System (GLASS) has revealed widespread antibiotic resistance levels across the 22 countries. In some countries, as many as 82% of patients with a bloodstream infection had bacteria resistant to at least one of the most commonly used antibiotics. [xiii]

The TechCast Expert Brain Trust estimates a high probability of about 55 percent that superbugs would break out in the few decades, and they think the social impact would be severe.

 

Strategic Implications

Drug-resistant superbugs could bring new opportunities for makers of disinfectants and related hardware and services. For example, a company called Xenex Disinfection Services secured $11.3 million in investor funding to make high-powered UV lights used to disinfect whole rooms and are now being deployed by various hospitals. [xiv]

The effects of widespread superbugs would be devastating to health care systems, spread incurable disease, and savage economies. If antibiotic resistance spreads out of control, people will routinely die as they did in previous centuries, of untreatable infections after minor medical procedures and everyday cuts, burns, and scrapes. Medical facilities would be overwhelmed with untreatable patients. Drug-resistant infections cost the US health-care system more than US$20 billion annually, in part because patients require more than 8 million extra hospital days.

[i]Washington Post, May 31, 2016

[ii]The Drugs Don’t Work: A Global Threat.New York, Penguin

[iii]World Health Organization, Oct 2016

[iv]US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, Jan 26, 2017

[v]UN World Health Organization, March 2017

[vi]Guardian, Oct 23, 2017

[vii]TED, Apr, 2017

[viii]Huffington Post, Jan 20, 2016

[ix]ABC, Feb 15, 2017

[x]Washington Post, Feb 26, 2017

[xi]New York Times, Jan 18, 2017

[xii]Financial Times, Feb 18, 2017

[xiii]World Health Organization, Jan 28, 2018

[xiv]Yahoo! Finance, Mar 31, 2017