Bill’s Blog – May 09, 2020

Wrapping Up Our Study of the Global MegaCrisis

 

I am grateful for the many wise comments contributed to our study of the Global MegaCrisis, and also for the  many responses from readers of Bill’s Blog. A close friend in California told me: 

“Bill,  I love what you are doing with your blog.  I want you to know you DO have hugely interested readers… I am right now sitting in a rocker on my deck , reading your blog, watching the moon rise, drinking a glass and generally communing. In my imagination, I can actually hear your voice.   Please keep on keeping on.  This is important work for all of us and for the planet.

Onward in grace and in hope! Julie”

As one example, the Men’s Group of my church in Georgetown, Holy Trinity, one of the most influential in DC, took to this message with enthusiasm. After outlining my thoughts in a Zoom meeting, they decided to devote five meetings to discuss the five principles of global consciousness.  The meetings on principles 1 and 2 have been held thus far with great success and the others are planned in the following weeks.  I am left amazed and gratified to find such an honorable response. It certainly has left an impression on the more than one hundred men in this group and their wives, many of whom joined the meetings.

Now it is time to wrap up this small study by noting a few references you may find useful: 

  • My blog of March 28 provided background information and issued a call for comments on solving the Global MegaCrisis. 
  • The blog of April 11 presented responses from seven contributors that concluded the coronavirus shows the present world order is not sustainable and suggests moving to a global consciousness. 
  • The blog of April 25 included another six responses extending our discussion into even more hopeful territory. 
  • The Journal of Future Studies is posting a summary of all this in their online version. 
  • Jess Garretson, CEO of The Cognis Group, has been posting podcasts on all issues of Bill’s Blog. The latest is here. 
  • An article summarizing the entire project is available here at BillHalal.com. 
  • To learn more about contributor Sohail Inayatullah, see How to Become Futurist and the Metafuture School

    One final essay trickled in recently from my colleague and good friend Pradeep Rau. Pradeep is a brilliant scholar, a seasoned manager and an inspirational leader. His considered advice is offered below.

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Mario Guillo, Spain

 

PROFILE SUMMARY

International PhD in Sociology, Degree in Communication and Master’s degree in Business Management. He developed his doctoral work in Finland and Spain, studying the Finnish Innovation System and focusing on the potential of Social Networks to develop Open Innovation Ecosystems.

Associate Professor of Participatory Foresight and Social Innovation (Department of Sociology – University of Alicante, Spain). Researcher at FUTURLAB – The Foresight Laboratory at University of Alicante (UA) and CMO at OGPI – The International Cooperation Project Office at UA. Since 2007 has been working as expert in Foresight, Innovation and Knowledge Transfer in more than 30 international cooperation and consultancy projects in 5 different continents.

Visiting professor in Aalto University, Haaga Helia University of Applied Science, Arcada University and University of Turku (Finland), Leuphana University (Germany), Deusto University (Spain), Pontifical Catholic University (Peru), Instituto del Bosque at Simón Bolívar University (Venezuela) and Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), teaching postgraduate courses and workshops on foresight methodologies, innovation strategies and communication tools. He is author and editor of different scientific articles and books on Foresight, Innovation and Strategic Communication Issues (in Spanish and English language), and founding member of The Millenium Project Spanish Chapter.

Email: mario.guillo@ua.es
 

Enric Bas, Spain

 

PROFILE SUMMARY

PhD (Hons) in Sociology . Full Professor of Social Foresight and Innovation at the University of Alicante (UA-Spain) since 2001. Visiting Professor/Researcher in universities worldwide.Director of FUTURLAB-The Foresight Laboratory at UA. FUTURLAB is part of three international major projects concerning Social Innovation: LASIN (Latin American Social Innovation Network) and SEASIN (Sout East Social Innovation Network) –both financed by the European Commission- and Red CYTED de Prospectiva e Innovación (financed by the intergovernmental science and technology program for Latin America and the Caribbean area).

Editorial Board Member of multiple scientific journals / book collections (European Journal of Futures Research, Journal of Futures Studies, Springer-Nature, Plaza & Valdés, etc…). Former member of the WFSF-World Futures Studies Federation Executive Board (2000-2005) and the European Futurists Conference Lucerne-Switzerland (2005-2012). Member of the SFRI-Strategic Foresight for Research and Innovation experts group of the European Commission (since 2005), and Coordinator of the WG3: Design of an effective Foresight-for-Innovation Network in Europe.

Recent outstanding publications would be “FLUX-3D, Participatory Foresight for Social Innovation” (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013) or “The Future Internet” (Springer, 2015). Late research (EC project “OpenDoors”)  has been oriented to the future of Shared & Collaborative Economy, and the regulatory role within the dialectics state/market (to be published in FUTURES journal). Currently working on UX-Design, Participatory Foresight, Complexity Management and Social Innovation. More recent area of interest: Climate Change, Social Change (Lifestyles) and Circular Economy business models (shared and collaborative economy).

Email:  bas@gcloud.ua.es
 

Alexandre Pupo, Brazil

 

PROFILE SUMMARY

 Professional with experience in technical and managerial aspects of Information Security and System Development, contributing to operations and results optimizations, to eliminate errors, and to build better technological solutions and organizational processes.

PhD student in Administration, also holds an MSc degree in Administration, an undergraduate in Information Technology, specialization in Information Security, and a specialization in Business Management.

Contribute to Brazilian and international initiatives in areas like Technology, Information Technology, Information Security, and Management as the TechCast, the Cloud Security Alliance (CSA), the Open Web Application Security Project (OWASP), and the Program for Future Studies (Profuturo).

As a member of these organizations, develop activities related to social, technological, managerial, information security, and future aspects of existing and emerging technologies.

Email: alexandrepupo@gmail.com
 

 

Kakha Nadiradze, Georgia

PROFILE SUMMARY

 Dr. Kakha Nadiradze as President of the Association for Farmers Rights Defense, AFRD Georgia is a certified practitioner of Agriculture, in the field of Food Safety, Environment protection, Plants and Animals AgroBiodiversity conservation. He received multiple awards from FAO and other International Organizations. Dr. Nadiradze currently serves as Country Representative and National Coordinator Southern Caucasus Countries of the Coalition for Sustained Excellence in Food and Health Protection, CSEFHP. His research work is connected to quantitative and qualitative GMO Analysis. His current research interests connected with BioBanking for the conservation of Agrobiodiversity. Dr. Kakha Nadiradze, an accomplished executive whose distinguished career in high tech spans the public, private, and nonprofit sectors, has been appointed as Task Force Member of the Global Genome Biodiversity Network, GGBN.







Email: nadiradzekakha@gmail.com

Bill’s Blog – April 25, 2020

 

Our blog of March 28 issued a call for comments on solving the Global MegaCrisis. The blog of April 11 presented presented responses from seven contributors that concluded the coronavirus shows the present world order is not sustainable and suggests moving to a global consciousness. We now present responses from the second round of this study using collective intelligence again. Quick summaries of the responses shown below show some who see more peril ahead and those who see the promise of change.

Jose Cordeiro captures this nicely by noting that the Chinese word for “crisis” means both threat and opportunity.

Hazel Henderson, Futurist and CEO of Ethical Markets Media, offers guides to avoid a collapse  of the Internet under heavy loads caused by the virus crisis. “Now that  everyone and every organization on the planet is going virtual … the question is on everyone’s lips: ‘Will the coronavirus break the internet?’ We at Ethical Markets are using some simple rules… They won’t harm anyone’s business or other outreach activities.  Rather such politeness and consideration for essential users and public information can help assure that the internet can continue to be the vital backbone of our lives for the foreseeable future. 

Peter King, Environmental Consultant, provides comments from two of his associates in Asia:  “Among my peers, there is considerable anxiety about what kind of world will emerge from COVID-19.  The accumulating threats to the planet—climate change, biodiversity loss, deforestation, illegal wildlife trade, air and water pollution, depletion of fish stocks, loss of coral reefs, among others—have been put on the back burner, while billions of people are hunkering down at home.  On the other side of this pandemic, will we go all out for economic recovery at the cost of the remaining absorptive capacity of the planet, or will we have learned our ultimate lesson—Nature always wins in the end.  

Jose Cordeiro, Vice Chair, HumanityPlus and Director of The Millennium Project, shows how this crisis presents both threats and opportunities. “We are currently living in a MegaCrisis, which implies MegaDanger but also MegaOpportunity. Even though Covid-19 originated in China, it is now a global problem and it requires a global solution. This MegaCrisis can be the MegaOpportunity to move forward together as one global family in our small planet. 

Michael Lee, Futurist and Author, examines the possibilities: “We could be facing unemployment and poverty on a scale that will dwarf the impacts of the financial crisis of 2008-9. When the global economy awakes from its lockdown hibernation, will it be a zombie economy? Will the epoch of wars and empires, which has engulfed history and caused more death and grief than I have the stomach to calculate, finally be over? Can we come together as one human race, black, white, yellow, brown and all the beautiful shades of human skin, to focus on the one reason why we’re all here in the first place: to use our fleeting lives for the total, ethical upliftment of human civilization?”

Fadi Bayoud, Consultant, Strategic Anchors, offers his vision of a preferable future: “beautiful as a priceless piece of art where: Spirituality drives human relationships. Science is respected, and governments invest more in scientific research … People’s development becomes a social policy. Education becomes free and foresight oriented …Economy becomes shared and sustainable … The countryside and Nature are a source for spiritual, psychological, and somatic healing. Industrial energy production is sustainable. Individual households produce their own energy needs … where rivers and lakes are source of pure and clean water. Health paradigm shifts to prevention.”

Julio Millan, President of the World Future Society, Mexico,  thinks “The megacrisis … is showing us that we have been leading the wrong model: it is not about individual gains, but about the common welfare. …  to behave like good citizens and understand what it means to do things for our community, to be empathetic to our neighbors, and to create better societies. Our concern now should be, what are we going to do when the liberal order, to which we are so accustomed, falls? We are in a historical moment, because after the pandemic our preconception of the world is going to change: we are entering a new era. 

Please also send this blog to friends, colleagues, and your mailing lists and tell them to sign up at www.BillHalal.com

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Yul D. Anderson, USA

PROFILE SUMMARY

 I am the President and Founder of the African American Future Society. My work focuses on Black American and African Future scenario development. The world we live in will need more diverse drivers of the future, I am glad to be one of those drivers.







Email: info@taafs.com

Kelly Carnes, USA

 

PROFILE SUMMARY

Kelly Carnes is a nationally recognized technology policy expert and thought leader, holding numerous leadership positions in technology business, government and law, during her 30 year career in the tech industry.
 
She is President and CEO of TechVision21, a Washington, DC-based technology strategy firm. TechVision21 leverages technology, business and government expertise to help companies: pinpoint and secure research and technology funding; forge critical alliances with business and government leaders; and promote and protect their interests in Washington. TechVision21 clients include global technology companies, leading U.S. research universities, government, and science and technology non-profit organizations.
 
Ms. Carnes has years of experience promoting and supporting the development and commercialization of technology, including various information, communications, defense and nanotechnology applications. Ms. Carnes also has worked to support a wide variety of renewable energy projects, including hydrogen and fuel cells, solar, ocean energy (wave and ocean thermal), biofuels, and innovative vehicle technologies, including fuel efficient engines, batteries, motors and other vehicle components.  Under Ms. Carnes leadership, the firm has worked successfully with many Federal agencies, including the Departments of Energy, Defense, Transportation, Agriculture, Commerce, Education, Labor and the National Science Foundation.
 
TechVision21 also has helped numerous government and non-profit organizations evaluate programs, develop influential reports and make policy recommendations, including work for the Office of Naval Research, the Army, the Alliance for Science and Technology Research in America (ASTRA), the National Association of Manufacturers Center for Workforce Success, Jobs for the Future, and the National Task Force on Technology and Disability. Most recently, Ms. Carnes led a team of researchers in completing an Assessment of the Naval STEM Workforce for the Department of the Navy in 2014.
 
Previously, Ms. Carnes served eight years in the Federal government, first in the White House, and then as a trusted technology policy advisor to four Secretaries of Commerce. Most recently, Ms. Carnes was a top national advocate for technology business. As a Presidential appointee, confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Ms. Carnes represented the Clinton Administration before Congress, and was a liaison to, and advocate for, the technology business community. Ms. Carnes also represented the United States in bi-lateral negotiations with foreign governments, and in multi-lateral fora, including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Ms. Carnes was a key point person on numerous high profile technology policy issues, including Federal R&D funding; e-business regulation; strengthening America’s high tech work force; and technology-based economic development.
 
Ms. Carnes provided strategic direction and management oversight for a multi-million dollar Federal agency; spearheaded sophisticated, highly-leveraged public-private partnerships to promote technological innovation; and led numerous Presidential and Cabinet-level technology initiatives. Private sector partners—including Warner Brothers, Scientific American, the National Association of Manufacturers, and DeVry University—invested $50+ for every Federal dollar invested in these ventures.
 
Ms. Carnes provided policy support for the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, an innovative public-private partnership among numerous Federal agencies, automotive manufacturers, suppliers, and universities, to develop fuel cells and other next generation automotive technologies. Ms. Carnes also worked extensively to promote the competitiveness of the U.S. environmental industry, producing a path-breaking report, and speaking nation-wide about the need for reform of U.S. environmental regulations.
 
Ms. Carnes helped lead the Administration’s efforts to address the nation’s demand for science, technology, engineering and mathematics workers. She orchestrated a series of Cabinet-level town meetings and events, met with more than 1,000 business, academic and state government leaders, developed two highly influential reports, created an award-winning website, and implemented an aggressive policy agenda to address the shortage.
 
She also created GetTech, a Telly-award winning national public awareness campaign to encourage teens to pursue technology careers. GetTech features celebrity endorsements, radio and television public service announcements, and an interactive web site. GetTech ads have been broadcast more than 45,000 times, and have reached students in 14,000 public middle schools.
 
Ms. Carnes is known as a dynamic speaker and forceful advocate for industry on technology and competitiveness issues.  She is a frequent keynote speaker at national and international technology and business conferences, and has been widely quoted in the media, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, CNN.com, Business Week.com, CIO Magazine and The National Journal. She has been a featured guest on National Public Radio’s Talk of the Nation, and appeared on television and radio broadcasts nationwide.
 
Ms. Carnes has served on numerous Boards and Commissions, including the Institute for Materials Science Innovation, the Comptroller General’s Advisory Board, the Senior Advisory Council for the Director of National Intelligence, the Water Innovation Alliance, the National Governor’s Association Commission on Technology and Adult Education, and the Steering Committee for the Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering and Technology (Morella Commission). She also is a member of a Blue Ribbon Panel for BEST: Building Engineering and Science Talent.
 
In 2000, Ms. Carnes was asked by the Center for the Study of the Presidency to join an elite group of experts making recommendations to President Bush on improving the Federal government’s ability to develop technology and competitiveness policy.
 
Ms. Carnes previously enjoyed a highly successful technology business career.  As a business and technology attorney at a top national law firm, Ms. Carnes structured and negotiated more than $1 billion in technology business transactions. These included Joint ventures and strategic alliances, venture capital transactions, technology development, licensing and marketing agreements, systems integration projects, and large-scale outsourcing deals.
 
Ms. Carnes graduate Phi Beta Kappa from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Magna Cum Laude from Georgetown University Law School, where she was Topics Editor of the Georgetown Law Journal.
 
Email: kcarnes@techvision21.com
 

 

Fadi Bayoud, UAE

PROFILE SUMMARY


Dr. Fadi Bayoud is an engineering management professional with wide technical, commercial, project management, and digital transformation experience. His 15+ professional years span across: academia; R&D; product management; business development, marketing & partnership building; project management: plan, design, implement, manage operations.

Currently, Fadi runs a consultancy boutique in UAE called Strategic Anchors, where he advices on Business Strategy, Project Management, Digital Transformation, and Business Process Engineering.

The industries he works in are: Capital Infrastructure Engineering and Construction; Smart Cities & Smart Mobility; Business Management. He is experienced in advanced mapping technologies; machine guidance/control; LiDAR mapping; robots & drones; self-driving vehicles; real-time monitoring sensors; BIM/GIS.

With a rich multicultural experience, he lived and worked in 10 different cities in the last 25 years and speaks 4 languages.

Dr. Fadi holds a Dipl.-Ing. (Master Engineering Level) in 1999 at the Aristotle university of Thessaloniki, a M.Sc. in 2002 at the University of Calgary, and a PhD in 2006 at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne – EPFL in geospatial engineering and robotics navigation and mapping. In 2020 he attained his MBA studies at Strathclyde Business School (Glasgow, UK), where he developed interest in Future Studies.
Email: fadi.bayoud@strategic-anchors.com

Bill’s Blog April 11, 2020

Collective Intelligence on Solving the MegaCrisis

 

 

Last week’s blog issued a call for statements proposing solutions to the Global MegaCrisis. 

 

Yes, this asks a lot, but the coronavirus crisis warns what’s in store as other threats arrive in the years ahead–more pandemics, climate change hits home, revolts over gross inequality, mass automation of jobs, global financial meltdowns, autocratic governments, cyberwar, bio attacks, terrorism, etc.


I received several fine statements and invited others to join in. The results are shown below in alphabetical order by last names. This is hardly a scientific survey, but it does represent a collection of forward ideas by some of the best thought leaders in the world. Here’s my quick analysis of what each has to offer, followed by what we can learn collectively.

Dennis Bushnell offers a provocative vision in which people become self-sustaining on a small plot of land while connected seamlessly to the entire world on tele-everything. Dennis concludes that all problems would disappear – “no pandemics, no energy crisis, no climate change, no financial mess, no job losses, etc.”  But one must think big to see this solution.

Jim Dator is dismayed by attitudes favoring economic growth over cultural and ecological values and believes that they are unlikely to change. The only way forward is through the imminent self-destruction of dominant values, behavior and institutions, with “the hope that a million phoenixes arise from the ashes… countless tsunami that we must learn to surf with pleasure and pain.”

Amy Fletcher provides a timely analysis of the coronavirus pandemic and effects of the crisis, highlighting the failures that are prolonging the pain. She advises us to “listen to those voices who do not have a platform and speak truth to power.” The role of the futurist is to facilitate the efforts of those who lack power because the answers we need may lie with them.

Sohail Inayatullah digs beneath the layers of these continuing crises to probe the underlying causes. Sohail finds that we need a “Gaian re-balance by moving to a world with a quadruple bottom line: Prosperity, Purpose, People, and Planet.”  A new Renaissance is needed – the transformation of self and society, home and plant.

Peter King urges us to follow the science and create a Nature-centric world. Guided by the natural wisdom of Earth’s ecosystems, we would find abundant energy, food, medicines, water, jobs, economic growth and a more satisfying lifestyle. To avoid dangerous tipping points, we must move forward into a “visceral and directly experienced relationship with Nature.”

Ruben Nelson focuses on the passing of today’s “modern techno-industrial” civilization, with no workable replacement for it in sight. While he is not hopeful about a solution, he does think what’s needed is a “wise, integral and meta-reflexive form of consciousness.” In other words, rather than thinking of economic growth, “The only way to grow, is UP.”

David Passig finds two phases that could unfold from the MegaCrisis. The first will disrupt the present idea behind globalization as mutual collaboration based on voluntarily respect and common interests. The second will establish the idea of ”entanglement” as symbiotic undetachable ties with enforced collaboration that respects mutual dependency on each other.